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Forward Trading (Spot assessed buy/sell price ranges and spreads)
Spreads – Positive numbers favour inner months, negative numbers outer months. All times quoted are local time.
BFOE = Brent/Forties/Oseberg/Ekofisk.
| | Month | High | Low | Open | Wtd.Avg. | Settle | Change |
| ICE | Apr | 79.58 | 77.88 | 78.27 | 78.78 | 79.25 | +1.07 |
| BRENT | May | 79.85 | 78.14 | 78.55 | 79.08 | 79.54 | +1.09 |
| | Jun | 80.24 | 78.57 | 78.85 | 79.34 | 79.95 | +1.07 |
| NYMEX | Apr | 81.23 | 79.44 | 80.34 | N/A | 80.87 | +1.19 |
| WTI | May | 81.60 | 79.81 | 80.70 | N/A | 81.26 | +1.20 |
| | Jun | 81.95 | 80.24 | 81.07 | N/A | 81.64 | +1.20 |
OVERVIEW
***ASIAN MARKETS*** Crude futures were rangebound on Wednesday. Prices had risen in the previous session after a larger than expected fall in US distillate stocks offset a larger than expected build in US crude inventory levels. The April Brent-Dubai EFS value widened following cuts to Saudi Arabian and Abu Dhabi Official prices. Regional grades were supported by strong gasoil cracks.
***EUROPEAN MORNING*** Apr ICE Futures Brent opened in positive territory at 78.27 compared to the previous day’s settle of 78.18. In the early hours, it fell to a low of 77.88 (minus 30 cents) and then recovered to trade just above 78.00 when activity increased. Apr Brent remained fairly volatile, but was gradually moving up during midmorning. It paused for a while around 78.30 but then posted sharp gains to reach a high before midday at 78.64 (plus 46 cents). Apr Brent came off from this high and ahead of lunch was trading in a range either side of 78.50. The outer months showed similar gains. On the Globex electronic platform, WTI was marginally stronger than its counterpart.
***EUROPEAN AFTERNOON*** Apr Brent held around 78.50 over the early part of lunch, but then gained ground to be trading around 78.75 as the US markets opened. Apr WTI was trading around 80.35 when the focus switched to the US benchmark, but it eased back to around 80.10 in early trading before starting to edge higher. It got up to around 80.40 before stalling and easing back to around 80.20 to await the Stats.
| U.S Stocks (million bbl) | w/e 26.02.10 | | | |
| | EIA | Change | API | Change |
| Crude | 341.6 | +4.1 | 337.1 | +2.7 |
| Gasoline | 231.9 | +0.7 | 233.0 | +1.1 |
| RFG | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Distillate | 151.8 | -0.9 | 155.0 | -4.1 |
| Heating Oil | 42.3 | -0.4 | 43.0 | -3.0 |
| Jet Kerosene | 43.3 | -0.4 | 43.1 | -0.6 |
The much larger than forecast crude build sent prices plunging down into negative territory to take Apr to within a few cents of the earlier low of 79.44 before the brakes were applied. However, it bounced back just as quickly on the back of a weaker US Dollar and continued to gain ground to post 3-digit gains and hit a high of 81.23 (plus 1.55). Apr Brent plunged from around 78.60 to hit 77.92 before bouncing right back up again to hit a new high of 79.58 (plus 1.40).
The partials market managed decent volume, but the CfDs were very thin.
***”WINDOW” TRADES and WEIGHTED AVERAGE***
| GRADE | MONTH | SELLER | BUYER | VOLUME | PRICE |
| | | | | | |
| BFOE | Apr | BP | Mercuria | 100 | 79.51 |
| | | Total | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | BP | ConPhil | 100 | 79.37 |
| | | Hetco | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | BP | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | ConPhil | Mercuria | 100 | 79.57 |
| | | MST | Mercuria | 100 | 79.57 |
| | | MST | Vitol | 100 | 79.60 |
| | | | | | |
| | | | Total Volume | 800 | |
| | | | | Weighted Average | 79.53 |
| | | | | | |
| BFOE | May | Shell | Total | 100 | 79.78 |
| | | Hetco | Total | 100 | 79.78 |
| | | | | | |
| | | | Total Volume | 200 | |
| | | | | Weighted Average | 79.78 |
| | | | | | |
ICE Brent One Minute Markers
| April | 79.42 |
| May | 79.67 |
| June | 80.09 |
***PHYSICAL MARKETS*** The North Sea market saw Forties talked firmer again, while Norwegian grades were slowly clearing out. The West African market was still fairly quiet, but a few Nigerian cargoes moved. The Urals markets saw a slightly firmer bid for a small Black Sea cargo, although a large cargo was offered lower.
***U.S. AFTERNOON*** Having established the session’s high, price action was choppy but firmly in positive territory in spite of the fact that the stock market reversed direction and moved into negative territory. The front month settled at 80.87 (plus 1.19) while the Apr-May contango held steady. Same month Brent closed at 79.25 (plus 1.07) and the trans-Atlantic arb also held steady at a 1.59 value.
***HOUSTON CLOSE*** The strong NYMEX close discouraged cash WTI activity afterwards, with bid/offers straddling the settlement. During electronic trading, the bias remained to the upside and values for April crude inched higher towards 81.00 on expectations of follow-through buying overnight and consolidated either side of 80.90.
SUBSCRIBER NOTE:
On Sunday 14 March 2010, clocks in the USA will be advanced by one hour to start Daylight Saving Time.
Europe will not move to Summer Time until Sunday 28 March.
For the weeks 15-19 March and 22-26 March, the ICE Futures Brent contract will settle at 18:30 GMT to coincide with the NYMEX settle.
The Exchange Close assessments will be based on the 18:30 GMT settlements.
NOTE: For full details on the criteria ICIS pricing uses in making its price assessments visit www.icis.com and click on "Methodology".