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Copyright violation is a serious offence

 

Copyright violation is a serious offence. Any distribution or forwarding of information which is not expressly permitted by your subscription agreement is a copyright violation. ICIS pricing will be using software to monitor unauthorised electronic redistribution of reports. Copyright 2010 Reed Business Information Limited. ICIS pricing is a member of the Reed Elsevier plc group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 3rd March 2010

World Crude Report Global Overview (3rd Update)

 

Forward Trading (Spot assessed buy/sell price ranges and spreads)

    

Singapore Close

London Midday

Post Merc

London Snapshot

Exchange Close

 

78.74

03 03 2010

03 03 2010

03 03 2010

03 03 2010

03 03 2010

 

 

Wed

Wed

Wed

Wed

Wed

 

 

6.30pm

12:30pm

2:30pm

4:30pm

07:30pm GMT

 

BFOE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dated

 

 

 

 78.74

 

 

Mar

77.53/77.57

77.89/77.93

78.10/78.14

78.91/78.95

78.62/78.66

 

Apr

78.26/78.30

78.62/78.66

78.83/78.87

79.64/79.68

79.35/79.39

 

May

78.41/78.45

78.78/78.82

78.99/79.03

79.85/79.89

79.57/79.61

 

Jun

78.79/78.83

79.19/79.23

79.40/79.44

80.27/80.31

79.98/80.02

 

Mar - Apr

-0.80/-0.65

-0.80/-0.65

-0.80/-0.65

-0.80/-0.65

-0.80/-0.65

 

Apr - May

-0.17/-0.13

-0.18/-0.14

-0.18/-0.14

-0.23/-0.19

-0.24/-0.20

 

May - Jun

-0.40/-0.36

-0.43/-0.39

-0.43/-0.39

-0.44/-0.40

-0.43/-0.39

 

Jun - Jul

-0.42/-0.38

-0.43/-0.39

-0.44/-0.40

-0.44/-0.40

-0.43/-0.39

 

BRENT-DUBAI

 

 

 

 

 

 

May - May

02.26/02.36

02.26/02.36

02.26/02.36

02.26/02.36

02.26/02.36

 

Jun - Jun

02.06/02.16

02.07/02.17

02.07/02.17

02.04/02.14

02.07/02.17

 

Jul - Jul

01.99/02.09

02.01/02.11

02.03/02.13

01.99/02.09

02.05/02.15

 

DUBAI

 

 

 

 

 

 

May

76.00/76.10

76.37/76.47

76.60/76.70

77.46/77.56

77.18/77.28

 

Jun

76.60/76.70

76.97/77.07

77.20/77.30

78.06/78.16

77.78/77.88

 

Jul

77.07/77.17

77.44/77.54

77.67/77.77

78.53/78.63

78.25/78.35

 

May - Jun

-0.65/-0.55

-0.65/-0.55

-0.65/-0.55

-0.65/-0.55

-0.65/-0.55

 

Jun - Jul

-0.52/-0.42

-0.52/-0.42

-0.52/-0.42

-0.52/-0.42

-0.52/-0.42

 

Jul - Aug

-0.51/-0.41

-0.51/-0.41

-0.51/-0.41

-0.51/-0.41

-0.51/-0.41

 

WTI-BRENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr - Apr

01.55/01.65

01.50/01.60

01.50/01.60

01.60/01.70

01.55/01.65

 

May - May

1.70/1.80

1.65/1.75

1.65/1.75

1.70/1.80

1.65/1.75

 

Jun - Jun

1.65/1.75

1.60/1.70

1.55/1.65

1.65/1.75

1.65/1.75

 

WTI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar

 

 

 

 

80.84/80.89

 

Apr

 

 

 

 

81.22/81.27

 

Spreads – Positive numbers favour inner months, negative numbers outer months.   All times quoted are local time.

BFOE = Brent/Forties/Oseberg/Ekofisk.

 

 

 

Month

High

Low

Open

Wtd.Avg.

Settle

Change

ICE

Apr

79.58

77.88

78.27

78.78

79.25

+1.07

BRENT

May

79.85

78.14

78.55

79.08

79.54

+1.09

 

Jun

80.24

78.57

78.85

79.34

79.95

+1.07

NYMEX

Apr

81.23

79.44

80.34

N/A

80.87

+1.19

WTI

May

81.60

79.81

80.70

N/A

81.26

+1.20

 

Jun

81.95

80.24

81.07

N/A

81.64

+1.20

              

 

OVERVIEW

   ***ASIAN MARKETS*** Crude futures were rangebound on Wednesday. Prices had risen in the previous session after a larger than expected fall in US distillate stocks offset a larger than expected build in US crude inventory levels. The April Brent-Dubai EFS value widened following cuts to Saudi Arabian and Abu Dhabi Official prices. Regional grades were supported by strong gasoil cracks.

                   

   ***EUROPEAN MORNING***  Apr ICE Futures Brent opened in positive territory at 78.27 compared to the previous day’s settle of 78.18. In the early hours, it fell to a low of 77.88 (minus 30 cents) and then recovered to trade just above 78.00 when activity increased. Apr Brent remained fairly volatile, but was gradually moving up during midmorning. It paused for a while around 78.30 but then posted sharp gains to reach a high before midday at 78.64 (plus 46 cents). Apr Brent came off from this high and ahead of lunch was trading in a range either side of 78.50. The outer months showed similar gains. On the Globex electronic platform, WTI was marginally stronger than its counterpart.

       

   ***EUROPEAN AFTERNOON*** Apr Brent held around 78.50 over the early part of lunch, but then gained ground to be trading around 78.75 as the US markets opened. Apr WTI was trading around 80.35 when the focus switched to the US benchmark, but it eased back to around 80.10 in early trading before starting to edge higher. It got up to around 80.40 before stalling and easing back to around 80.20 to await the Stats.

 

U.S Stocks

(million bbl)

w/e 26.02.10

 

 

 

 

EIA

Change

API

Change

Crude

341.6

+4.1

337.1

+2.7

Gasoline

231.9

+0.7

233.0

+1.1

RFG

0.6

-0.2

1.0

-0.5

Distillate

151.8

-0.9

155.0

-4.1

Heating Oil

42.3

-0.4

43.0

-3.0

Jet Kerosene

43.3

-0.4

43.1

-0.6

 

The much larger than forecast crude build sent prices plunging down into negative territory to take Apr to within a few cents of the earlier low of 79.44 before the brakes were applied. However, it bounced back just as quickly on the back of a weaker US Dollar and continued to gain ground to post 3-digit gains and hit a high of 81.23 (plus 1.55). Apr Brent plunged from around 78.60 to hit 77.92 before bouncing right back up again to hit a new high of 79.58 (plus 1.40).

The partials market managed decent volume, but the CfDs were very thin.

***”WINDOW” TRADES and WEIGHTED AVERAGE***

GRADE

MONTH        

SELLER          

BUYER            

VOLUME          

PRICE          

 

 

 

 

 

 

BFOE

Apr

BP

Mercuria

100

79.51

 

 

Total

Mercuria

100

79.54

 

 

BP

ConPhil

100

79.37

 

 

Hetco

Mercuria

100

79.54

 

 

BP

Mercuria

100

79.54

 

 

ConPhil

Mercuria

100

79.57

 

 

MST

Mercuria

100

79.57

 

 

MST

Vitol

100

79.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Volume

800

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted Average

79.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

BFOE

May

Shell

Total

100

79.78

 

 

Hetco

Total

100

79.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Volume

200

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted Average

79.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICE Brent One Minute Markers

April

79.42

May

79.67

June

80.09

    

   ***PHYSICAL MARKETS*** The North Sea market saw Forties talked firmer again, while Norwegian grades were slowly clearing out. The West African market was still fairly quiet, but a few Nigerian cargoes moved. The Urals markets saw a slightly firmer bid for a small Black Sea cargo, although a large cargo was offered lower.

    

   ***U.S. AFTERNOON*** Having established the session’s high, price action was choppy but firmly in positive territory in spite of the fact that the stock market reversed direction and moved into negative territory. The front month settled at 80.87 (plus 1.19) while the Apr-May contango held steady. Same month Brent closed at 79.25 (plus 1.07) and the trans-Atlantic arb also held steady at a 1.59 value.

  

 

      

   ***HOUSTON CLOSE*** The strong NYMEX close discouraged cash WTI activity afterwards, with bid/offers straddling the settlement. During electronic trading, the bias remained to the upside and values for April crude inched higher towards 81.00 on expectations of follow-through buying overnight and consolidated either side of 80.90.

     

 

   SUBSCRIBER NOTE:

On Sunday 14 March 2010, clocks in the USA will be advanced by one hour to start Daylight Saving Time.

 

Europe will not move to Summer Time until Sunday 28 March.

 

For the weeks 15-19 March and 22-26 March, the ICE Futures Brent contract will settle at 18:30 GMT to coincide with the NYMEX settle.

 

The Exchange Close assessments will be based on the 18:30 GMT settlements.

 

          

NOTE: For full details on the criteria ICIS pricing uses in making its price assessments visit www.icis.com and click on "Methodology".                                  

 

 

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