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Forward Trading (Spot assessed buy/sell price ranges and spreads)
Spreads – Positive numbers favour inner months, negative numbers outer months. All times quoted are local time.
BFOE = Brent/Forties/Oseberg/Ekofisk.
| | Month | High | Low | Open | Wtd.Avg. | Settle | Change |
| ICE | Apr | 79.58 | 77.88 | 78.27 | 78.78 | 79.25 | +1.07 |
| BRENT | May | 79.85 | 78.14 | 78.55 | 79.08 | 79.54 | +1.09 |
| | Jun | 80.24 | 78.57 | 78.85 | 79.34 | 79.95 | +1.07 |
| NYMEX | Apr | 81.23 | 79.44 | 80.34 | N/A | 80.87 | +1.19 |
| WTI | May | 81.60 | 79.81 | 80.70 | N/A | 81.26 | +1.20 |
| | Jun | 81.95 | 80.24 | 81.07 | N/A | 81.64 | +1.20 |
OVERVIEW
***ASIAN MARKETS*** Crude futures were rangebound on Wednesday. Prices had risen in the previous session after a larger than expected fall in US distillate stocks offset a larger than expected build in US crude inventory levels. The April Brent-Dubai EFS value widened following cuts to Saudi Arabian and Abu Dhabi Official prices. Regional grades were supported by strong gasoil cracks.
***EUROPEAN MORNING*** Apr ICE Futures Brent opened in positive territory at 78.27 compared to the previous day’s settle of 78.18. In the early hours, it fell to a low of 77.88 (minus 30 cents) and then recovered to trade just above 78.00 when activity increased. Apr Brent remained fairly volatile, but was gradually moving up during midmorning. It paused for a while around 78.30 but then posted sharp gains to reach a high before midday at 78.64 (plus 46 cents). Apr Brent came off from this high and ahead of lunch was trading in a range either side of 78.50. The outer months showed similar gains. On the Globex electronic platform, WTI was marginally stronger than its counterpart.
***EUROPEAN AFTERNOON*** Apr Brent held around 78.50 over the early part of lunch, but then gained ground to be trading around 78.75 as the US markets opened. Apr WTI was trading around 80.35 when the focus switched to the US benchmark, but it eased back to around 80.10 in early trading before starting to edge higher. It got up to around 80.40 before stalling and easing back to around 80.20 to await the Stats.
| U.S Stocks (million bbl) | w/e 26.02.10 | | | |
| | EIA | Change | API | Change |
| Crude | 341.6 | +4.1 | 337.1 | +2.7 |
| Gasoline | 231.9 | +0.7 | 233.0 | +1.1 |
| RFG | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Distillate | 151.8 | -0.9 | 155.0 | -4.1 |
| Heating Oil | 42.3 | -0.4 | 43.0 | -3.0 |
| Jet Kerosene | 43.3 | -0.4 | 43.1 | -0.6 |
The much larger than forecast crude build sent prices plunging down into negative territory to take Apr to within a few cents of the earlier low of 79.44 before the brakes were applied. However, it bounced back just as quickly on the back of a weaker US Dollar and continued to gain ground to post 3-digit gains and hit a high of 81.23 (plus 1.55). Apr Brent plunged from around 78.60 to hit 77.92 before bouncing right back up again to hit a new high of 79.58 (plus 1.40).
The partials market managed decent volume, but the CfDs were very thin.
***”WINDOW” TRADES and WEIGHTED AVERAGE***
| GRADE | MONTH | SELLER | BUYER | VOLUME | PRICE |
| | | | | | |
| BFOE | Apr | BP | Mercuria | 100 | 79.51 |
| | | Total | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | BP | ConPhil | 100 | 79.37 |
| | | Hetco | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | BP | Mercuria | 100 | 79.54 |
| | | ConPhil | Mercuria | 100 | 79.57 |
| | | MST | Mercuria | 100 | 79.57 |
| | | MST | Vitol | 100 | 79.60 |
| | | | | | |
| | | | Total Volume | 800 | |
| | | | | Weighted Average | 79.53 |
| | | | | | |
| BFOE | May | Shell | Total | 100 | 79.78 |
| | | Hetco | Total | 100 | 79.78 |
| | | | | | |
| | | | Total Volume | 200 | |
| | | | | Weighted Average | 79.78 |
| | | | | | |
ICE Brent One Minute Markers
| April | 79.42 |
| May | 79.67 |
| June | 80.09 |
***PHYSICAL MARKETS*** The North Sea market saw Forties talked firmer again, while Norwegian grades were slowly clearing out. The West African market was still fairly quiet, but a few Nigerian cargoes moved. The Urals markets saw a slightly firmer bid for a small Black Sea cargo, although a large cargo was offered lower.
***U.S. AFTERNOON*** Having established the session’s high, price action was choppy but firmly in positive territory in spite of the fact that the stock market reversed direction and moved into negative territory. The front month settled at 80.87 (plus 1.19) while the Apr-May contango held steady. Same month Brent closed at 79.25 (plus 1.07) and the trans-Atlantic arb also held steady at a 1.59 value.
***HOUSTON CLOSE*** The strong NYMEX close discouraged cash WTI activity afterwards, with bid/offers straddling the settlement. During electronic trading, the bias remained to the upside and values for April crude inched higher towards 81.00 on expectations of follow-through buying overnight and consolidated either side of 80.90.
SUBSCRIBER NOTE:
On Sunday 14 March 2010, clocks in the USA will be advanced by one hour to start Daylight Saving Time.
Europe will not move to Summer Time until Sunday 28 March.
For the weeks 15-19 March and 22-26 March, the ICE Futures Brent contract will settle at 18:30 GMT to coincide with the NYMEX settle.
The Exchange Close assessments will be based on the 18:30 GMT settlements.
NOTE: For full details on the criteria ICIS pricing uses in making its price assessments visit www.icis.com and click on "Methodology".
ARABIAN GULF
COMMENTS
The reduction in Official prices from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi were viewed as supportive by the market, particularly the significant cuts in prices for heavier Saudi grades. The April Brent-Dubai EFS widened in response to the cuts and increased the attractiveness of Arab Gulf grades for Asian customers at the expense of cargoes from West African and the Mediterranean.
Remaining barrels of April Qatar Marine were assessed unchanged at Official minus 50 cents. Meanwhile, valuations for April Murban were heard to have firmed to around Official plus 4 cents following the release of the Abu Dhabi prices.
May Oman cargoes were reported to have traded recently at around Official plus 8-10 cents. Meanwhile, May Oman was assessed around 8 cents weaker at Dubai quotes minus 57 cents, based on Wednesday’s DME settlement price.
In open market trading, Phibro sold four 25,000 bbl May DUBAI partials to Shell at 76.05. At the close, May Dubai partials were bid at 76.05 by Shell and offered at 76.10 by Phibro. May Oman partials were offered at 76.60 by Unipec, but there was no bid.
The May DME Oman futures contract settled at 76.59, up 90 cents. The May ICE Middle East Sour Crude marker was set at 77.39, up 1.25.
The April Brent-Dubai EFS was quoted at 1.50, up around 40 cents on the previous day. The May Brent-Dubai EFS was assessed at 1.27, up around 27 cents.
NORTH SEA
COMMENTS
There was just a single cargo of Forties (F0325) eligible for circulation, but with the books deemed closed it was no surprise that it failed to appear in public.
In open market trading, Statoil offered a 17-19 March Forties, starting at Dtd flat and working down to just Dtd less 5 cents without attracting any buying interest.
Morgan Stanley made a bid for a 14-16 March Forties at Dtd less 20 cents and did not move off that.
Morgan Stanley also made a bid for a 20-22 March Forties, again starting at Dtd less 20 cents and working up to Dtd less 10 cents.
Total made a bid for an 18-22 March Forties, starting at Dtd less 30 cents and working up to Dtd less 20 cents.
None of the bids attracted any selling interest.
Earlier in the day, Nexen offered a 1-10 April FORTIES at May BFOE flat and while it confirmed that the cargo had been sold, it declined to divulge any details.
Elsewhere, the StatoilHydro marketing team added a few more cargoes to its list and trimmed most of the prices.
The list of cargoes on offer now read:
17 March Troll at Dtd plus 180
20 March Varg at Dtd plus 1.70 CIF basis Rotterdam
26 March Asgard shown as “available”
28 March Gullfaks at Dtd plus 2.05 CIF basis Rotterdam
30 March Statfjord at Dtd plus 1.45 CIF basis Rotterdam
Cross month Oseberg(s) at Dtd plus 75 cents
By the end of the day, the TROLL and the GULLFAKS were reported to have been sold.
Dated to Paper – Assessments at 16:30 hours London
| Period | Bid/Offer | Deals Done |
| | | |
| 8-12 Mar: | May -1.17/-1.07 | |
| 15-19 Mar: | May -1.10/-1.00 | May -1.06 (x100) |
| 22-26 Mar: | May -0.96/-0.92 | May -0.94 (x100, x100, x100) |
| 29 Mar-1 Apr: | May -0.87/-0.77 | |
| 6-9 Apr: | May -0.75/-0.65 | |
| 13-16 Apr: | May -0.62/-0.52 | |
Dated to Front-line ICE Brent – Assessments at 16:30 hours London
| Period | Bid/Offer | Deals Done |
| | | |
| Bal Mar: | -0.89/-0.79 | |
| Apr: | -0.80/-0.70 | |
| May: | -0.72/-0.62 | |
| Q2’10: | -0.82/-0.64 | |
| Q3’10: | -0.64/-0.56 | |
| Q4’10: | -0.62/-0.54 | |
| 2011: | -0.49/-0.43 | |
| 2012: | -0.42/-0.36 | |
DEALS DONE: (Unless otherwise noted, prices were undisclosed)
FORTIES: 1-10 April.
GULLFAKS: 28 March. TROLL: 17 March.
THE ICIS BFOE TRADING MATRIX (TO 02 Mar 2010)
| | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 |
| Month | Price | Pct | Price | Pct | Price | Pct | Price | Pct | Price | Pct |
Aug | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Sep | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Oct | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Nov | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Dec | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Jan | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Feb | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Mar | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| O/ALL | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - | --- | - |
| Deals | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - |
WEST AFRICA
COMMENTS
The latest tender by the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) for the purchase of sweet crude for loading 16-30 April or May closes in full on Thursday, with the results expected to be announced on Friday.
Many expected the trader that recently picked up a couple of cargoes of Qua Iboe for loading late April (WCR 2 March) to be a front-runner for the business.
Indeed, the trader was reported to have possibly picked up another couple of cargoes of the grade from the terminal operator, but no details were forthcoming.
The same seller was reported to have moved a 22-23 April YOHO to a USEC refiner, but no price details were forthcoming.
Trade remained brisk on AKPO condensate with a trader reported to have sold its 23-24 April cargo to an Iberian refiner, but again no price details were forthcoming.
A Scandinavian producer was reported swapping the 16-17 April DALIA for the 27-28 April cargo with a European major.
MEDITERRANEAN
COMMENTS
There was talk that activity was picking up for some of the sour grades in the region, although this was limited and the market remained relatively subdued. One view was that margins were poor on the back of low demand due to a slowdown in refinery output.
C.I.S. EXPORTS
COMMENTS
In open market trading, Shell offered a 100,000 tonnes cargo of Urals for loading 24-28 March ex Primorsk or Gdansk, working down from Dtd less 1.20 CIF basis Rotterdam to Dtd less 1.60, but without attracting any buying interest.
In the south, ENI made a bid for an 80,000 tonnes cargo of Urals for loading 19-23 March ex Novorossiysk or Yuzhny, working up from Dtd less 2.30 CIF basis Augusta to Dtd less 1.85, but without attracting any offers.
Lukoil made a bid for an 80,000 tonnes cargo of Urals for loading 22-26 March ex Novorossiysk or Yuzhny, working up from Dtd less 2.10 CIF basis Augusta to Dtd to Dtd less 1.90, but with an equal lack of success.
Shell offered a 140,000 tonnes cargo of Urals for loading 19-23 March ex Novorossiysk of Yuzhny, starting from Dtd less 1.30 CIF Augusta and working down to Dtd less 1.90, but without attracting any buying interest.
Earlier in the day, Russian producer, Surgutneftegaz, awarded a tender for an 80,000 tonnes cargo of Urals for loading 27-28 March ex Yuzhny to a European major.
AMERICAS
COMMENTS
***CASH***
With WTI rising on the NYMEX, the domestic grades re-aligned in value.
LLS started the day trading at WTI plus 85 cents and sold down to plus 72 cents; with late bids retreating further. HLS traded between WTI less 25 and 30 cents. MIDLAND SWEET barrels were sold between 20 and 24 cents discount to Cushing.
The sour grades weakened substantially. WTS traded from WTI less 1.90, out to minus 2.20. MARS started at WTI less 3.80 and sold down to 4.00 discount. SGC barrels were sold between 4.00 and 4.25 discount to Intermediate.
With the Apr-May contango holding steady, CMAs traded between minus 49 and minus 50 cents.
Reports that an ANS cargo for March delivery into the USWC had achieved WTI parity could not be confirmed.
An April cargo also into the West Coast was reported sold at WTI less 1.35.
No cash WTI activity was noted following the strong NYMEX close; with bid/offers for April crude straddling the 80.87 settlement. But, with the market’s bias well to the upside, the value continued to rise during electronic trading and topped out around 81.01 before consolidating either side of 80.85.
***U.S. CLOSE***
| CRUDE | MONTH | BUY | / | SELL | CRUDE | MONTH | BUY | / | SELL |
| WTI | APR | -0.03 | | 0.10 | ANS WC | APR | -1.50 | | -1.30 |
| CMAs | APR | -0.52 | | -0.48 | MARS | APR | -4.10 | | -4.00 |
| MIDLAND | APR | -0.25 | | -0.20 | CUSIANA** | APR | -1.80 | | -1.50 |
| LLS | APR | +0.70 | | +0.80 | BASRAH** | APR | -4.60 | | -3.80 |
| WTS | APR | -2.20 | | -2.00 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
***NOTE: WTI is valued against the NYMEX settlement. All grade differentials are assessed against cash WTI. **Cusiana and Basrah are assessed against the forward WTI month.
FUTURES
***NYMEX Light Sweet Settlement*** Apr 80.87 (Plus 1.19) May 81.26 (Plus 1.20) Jun 81.64 (Plus 1.20) ***ESTIMATED VOLUME*** 514,986
The euro remained firm overnight in response to reports of a Greek austerity plan and crude prices were rangebound but with a slight upside bias as a result of the API stats. A brief dip drove the Apr WTI contract into negative territory to establish the session’s low at 79.44 (Print less 24 cents). Steady gains lifted the front month to open floor trading at 80.34 (plus 66 cents) but bounced around between 80.10 and 80.40 while waiting for the release of the EIA stats. The much larger than forecast build in crude and gasoline stocks initially sent the Apr contract down to revisit the overnight lows but the dip was short lived. A weak dollar and expectations of increased gasoline and jet fuel demand as the economy improves overshadowed the inventory data and drove the energy complex sharply higher. Apr crude penetrated the previous high and the gains were extended as dips were seen as buying opportunities. In choppy action, the surge topped out at 81.23 (plus 1.55) before the rally slowed down. A small portion of the gains were given back ahead of the closing bell and Apr futures closed at 80.87 (plus 1.19); with the Apr-May contango holding steady.
The inventory and supply data continues to be overshadowed by action in the currency markets. As higher lows are made, the Apr contract is now at 7-weeks highs and by closing above 80.50 suggests that a near term bottom is about to be established; with dips seen as buying opportunities. The year’s high at 83.95 is now within reach and could be tested if the dollar remains weak. No real signal of weakness is in sight.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Thursday, 4 Mar 2010 (Apr WTI)
SUPPORT: **** 78.00/76.51 RESISTANCE: **** 81.74/83.95
ASIA PACIFIC
COMMENTS
Further details emerged regarding the award price of a PV Oil tender for 300,000 bbl of 14-18 April Bunga Kekwa (WCR 2 March) placed with a Singapore based refiner. The cargo was heard to have traded at a stronger price level around APPI Tapis minus 50 cents – 1.00. Previously, PV Oil placed March Bunga Kekwa at around APPI Tapis minus 1.00.
Premium levels in recent tenders for Vietnamese grades such as Ruby, Rang Dong and Bunga Kekwa have risen amid a strengthening of gasoil cracks, which have climbed to nine month highs.
April loading heavy Australian grades were reported to be sold out, with Enfield and Stybarrow placed last week at firmer levels around Dated Brent plus 4.00 and April Vincent trading at around Dated Brent plus 1.50.
An Australian equity producer also recently placed an April Cossack at around Dated Brent plus 2.00, which was in line with April trade levels.
Chinese Petroleum Corp (CPC) closed a purchase tender for April arrival heavy sweet crude. CPC usually buys Chinese or Indonesian grades via such tenders.
Rosneft, the Russian producer was reported to have awarded three 730,000 bbl cargoes of end March - April loading ESPO to a European/Russian trader, via a recent tender. No price details were available.
In its previous tender, Rosneft awarded a tender for four 730,000 bbl cargoes of March ESPO Blend at weaker price levels around Dubai quotes minus 60 cents. One of the March ESPO cargoes was sold to a Chinese trader, while the other three were placed with the same European/Russian trader.
A number of equity producers were reported to have taken cargoes of April North West Shelf (NWS) condensate into their own systems despite firmer naphtha cracks. However, there were reports of trades for April NWS condensate at around Dated Brent plus 1.30, which was in line with March deals.
In open market trading, Phibro sold four 25,000 bbl May DUBAI partials to Shell at 76.05. At the close, May Dubai partials were bid at 76.05 by Shell and offered at 76.10 by Phibro. May Oman partials were offered at 76.60 by Unipec, but there was no bid.
The May DME Oman futures contract settled at 76.59, up 90 cents. The May ICE Middle East Sour Crude marker was set at 77.39, up 1.25.
